Sinquefield Cup and Grand Chess Tour Qualifying Odds

by Eric Isaacson

Here are the odds for each player of winning the Sinquefield Cup, and of qualifying for the London finals of the Grand Chess Tour, based on an analysis of all the possible combinations of results in the remaining games, splitting the probabilities and Grand Tour point assignments appropriately in the cases with ties.

The charts on the left assign an equal probability to each game result. The charts on the right assign a probability to each game result that takes into account the players' relative ratings and color assignment.

The listings of Grand Tour standings for each possibility are here.

I will revise these charts as the tournament progresses and the possibilities narrow. 

Number of games remaining: 1
Number of possible results: 3 ** 1 = 3

Remaining games:
  Karjakin MVL


Odds of winning the Sinquefield Cup:

Equal probabilities        Weighted probabilities

   Carlsen  33.33%           Carlsen  51.51%
   Caruana  33.33%           Aronian  29.67%
   Aronian  33.33%           Caruana  18.82%
     Anand   0.00%             Anand   0.00%
  Grischuk   0.00%          Grischuk   0.00%
Mamedyarov   0.00%        Mamedyarov   0.00%
        So   0.00%                So   0.00%
  Karjakin   0.00%          Karjakin   0.00%
       MVL   0.00%               MVL   0.00%
  Nakamura   0.00%          Nakamura   0.00%


Odds of qualifying for London:

Equal probabilities        Weighted probabilities

   Aronian 100.00%           Aronian 100.00%
       MVL 100.00%               MVL 100.00%
  Nakamura 100.00%          Nakamura 100.00%
        So  66.67%                So  69.00%
   Caruana  33.33%           Caruana  31.00%
     Anand   0.00%             Anand   0.00%
  Grischuk   0.00%          Grischuk   0.00%
Mamedyarov   0.00%        Mamedyarov   0.00%
  Karjakin   0.00%          Karjakin   0.00%